A guide to using ONS and Leeds council open data to size a local service market

What to take away

ONS datasets that size a local service market in Leeds

Market sizing for a Leeds service business begins with counting the firms that could buy. The ONS publishes the official business population through the UK Business Counts dataset and the Business Population Estimates, and its breakdown by activity, size and location is the standard starting point.

SIC-code-level counts for Leeds are in the UK Business Counts dataset, which can be filtered by local authority and five-digit SIC code. The 2021 Census recorded 811,956 residents in the Leeds metropolitan district.

The UK business activity, size and location bulletin sets out how many businesses operate in each sector and how they are distributed across local authority areas, including Leeds. That gives you a denominator before you talk to a single prospect.

For survival and churn, the ONS Business Population Estimates and the business statistics collection carry the business population and survival rates series. Survival rates matter in Yorkshire local services because a market full of young firms behaves differently from one dominated by established operators.

A sector where most firms are under three years old will buy marketing differently from one where the average age is twelve years.

Regional accounts provide the local economic backdrop. They cover gross value added and household income by region and sub-region, which is what you need to judge whether a Leeds postcode can support premium pricing or only volume work.

If you are building a plan for a Yorkshire-wide agency, these accounts let you compare Leeds with Sheffield, Bradford and York on a consistent basis.

The regional labour market bulletin gives employment and unemployment figures for Yorkshire and the Humber. Employment levels are a proxy for how many households can afford a service, and for how many people a client might need to employ.

For trades and care services, the labour market also shows whether recruitment is a constraint on growth.

The methodology note behind the business counts explains how the ONS defines an active business, how it treats sole traders and how it avoids double counting. Read it before you quote a business count in a pitch.

It tells you what the figure includes and what it leaves out, which is the difference between a defensible estimate and a guess.

If you want a wider view of how this fits together, you can read the guide market size in England using ONS data.

Leeds City Council open data sources worth using

Leeds City Council open data is published through the Leeds Data Mill at dataportal.leeds.gov.uk and covers the things a national dataset cannot see. Licensing registers show which premises hold a licence for alcohol, late-night refreshment, taxis or scrap metal. For a security firm, a licensing lawyer or a commercial cleaning company, that register is a prospect list with addresses.

Planning applications are the other high-value dataset. They show where new commercial units, conversions and extensions are being approved. A fit-out contractor or an IT support business can use planning data to find streets where demand is about to appear, months before the work starts.

Combine this with the demand signals before you budget that we cover elsewhere on this site.

Waste and environmental data, roadworks notices and public health profiles add context. Public health profiles are useful for care, fitness and domiciliary services because they show the age and health profile of each Leeds ward. A ward with a high proportion of residents over 75 supports different services from a student ward in Hyde Park.

Council data also covers business rates and empty premises in some published sets. Empty premises are a signal of churn: a parade of vacant units in a district centre tells you that local service demand may be weak, or that a new operator could pick up cheap space. Either way, it is evidence.

Use council data to validate what the ONS tells you. If the ONS says Leeds has a certain number of businesses in a sector, the licensing and planning records should be consistent with that. If they are not, find out why before you put the number in a proposal.

Building demand estimates for Yorkshire local-service sectors

A demand estimate is a structured calculation, not a single number. Follow these steps and you can rebuild the figure every year.

The output is a range, not a point. Give a low, middle and high figure, and explain what drives the difference. A range of £2m to £4m is more honest than a single £3m, and it protects you when a client asks how you got there.

A worked example helps. Suppose you are sizing the market for commercial cleaning in Leeds. The ONS business count gives you the number of offices, retail units and industrial premises in the district. The council's licensing and planning data tells you how many new premises are coming.

Multiply premises by an average annual cleaning contract value, adjust for the share that use contracted cleaners, and you have a demand estimate you can defend.

For any estimate, note that benchmark research is built on assumptions that may not match Leeds. National averages hide regional variation, and Yorkshire local services often price below the national mean. Use benchmarks as a starting point and replace them with local evidence as soon as you have it.

Cross-checking ONS figures against council data

ONS and council data answer different questions. The ONS counts businesses and economic activity. The council counts premises, licences and planning permissions. When they disagree, the disagreement is information.

A common gap is the home-based business. The ONS may count a sole trader working from a Leeds home, while the council has no record because no licence or planning permission is needed. In sectors such as tutoring, web design and consultancy, home-based firms can be the majority. Your estimate should not ignore them.

Another gap is the informal economy. Some trades operate without registration, and some premises operate under a different use class. Council data will not capture them, and the ONS will not either. Acknowledge the gap rather than pretending it does not exist.

Timing is the third issue. ONS business counts are published with a lag, and council planning data is live. A planning approval today may not appear in the business count for a year or more. If you are sizing a market for a new service, planning data is your leading indicator.

Finally, check geography. ONS data may be for Leeds as a local authority, while council data may be by ward or postcode. Compare like with like.

For competitor comparisons, use competitor research.

Presenting a market size estimate that survives scrutiny

A market estimate is only as good as its presentation. Start with the method, not the number. Show the source, the date and the calculation. A reader who can follow your arithmetic is far more likely to trust the conclusion.

Use a table to show the inputs. This makes the assumptions visible and lets a client challenge one line without rejecting the whole estimate.

Avoid claims you cannot support. The Advertising Standards Authority and the CAP Code require evidence for factual claims in marketing, and a market size figure quoted in a pitch is a factual claim. Keep your workings so that you can produce them if asked.

Finally, update the estimate annually. ONS bulletins are revised, council data changes, and the local economy moves. An estimate with a date on it is a professional asset. An undated number is a liability.

Common questions